After so many years of war, financial and political instability, Iraq finally looks towards long-term economic development. At the heart of the Iraqi government’s plans for economic gain, is the ‘Development Road’ project. It’s a long stretch of highway going through all of Iraq’s regions, except a certain notable one, to connect to Turkiye.
As with anything related to Iraq and a price tag such as $17 billion, it has instantly become a geopolitical hot topic after the four-way agreement was signed between Iraq, Turkiye, UAE, and Qatar earlier this week.
It’s certainly a huge project, and also one that interests China greatly.
The plan
The Iraqi ‘Development Road’ Project seeks to connect Iraq to its economically strongest and well-connected neighbour, Turkiye.
The route will traverse 13 provinces of Iraq except for the autonomous province of Iraqi Kurdistan. It will have 15 stations for its road portion, which could be well over 970 kilometres in distance.
This makes sense if we take the nominal distance between the two furthest points in Iraq, Al-Faw and Dashtatakh. It also includes a 1,200 km long rail portion which is to be built right alongside the road network.
In the end, the main goal is to connect the Al-Faw port directly to Turkiye. Al-Faw is one of the main transit hubs for products originating from Iraq’s oil-rich south. More than just facing westward though, this project has come to be a cornerstone of Iraqi cooperation with China.
What each concerned state aims to get
Iraq: For Iraq, this project bears promise of a new future. In no uncertain terms, the Iraqi Transport Minister Razaaq Muhaibis al-Sadawi has said: “The Development Road is a strategic project that puts Iraq on the cusp of a new phase”. The country has been desperate to recover the losses of the last three decades of foreign intervention, internal strife, terrorism, and economic decay.
The promise of $4 billion in annual revenue is too much to give up. Most importantly, since Turkiye is very well connected to the European market, Iraqi products and supplies from its oil-rich southern regions can find a much shorter route to those markets than in previous years. This is despite the many economic issues that could make the completion of the project a complicated process.
Turkiye: For Ankara, hauling Iraqi oil supplies to the EU offers a unique chance to broaden its geopolitical footprint in West Asia and Europe. It will further increase its importance as a commercial player in both regions.
Most importantly, however, the choice of skipping Iraqi Kurdistan offers Turkiye a chance to economically sideline the Kurdish political presence, which it had been combating for decades. A major military operation to target the military wing of the Kurdish Workers’ Party is planned to help along with the project.
Qatar & UAE: Qatar seeks to capitalise on its friendly relations with Iran and further grow its diplomatic presence as a neutral mediator. It also seeks to strengthen previously established good relations with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government.
It seems as if Qatar has continued on its foreign policy goal of maintaining enough geopolitical capital to remain free of Saudi Arabia’s shadow ever since the Qatari diplomatic crisis in 2017. The UAE seems to want to use the project as an alternative land route into Europe, therefore almost purely for economic reasons.
China: For China, the Development Road offers benefits as an Iraq-initiated complement to its own globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Also, the expansion of Al-Faw port from around 2018 and 2019 was done with the ease of access with the BRI in mind. Therefore, the Development Road connecting the port to Turkiye creates yet another land route for Chinese goods to flow westward.
China has been seen as an attractive superpower to partner with compared to the US. Part of the reason is due to the close linkage of Iraqi political groups including Al-Sudani’s own party with Iran, who in turn has gotten cozy with China.
To sweeten the deal, China ostensibly turns a blind eye to governance and is non-interventionist unlike how the US had been. Furthermore, China also presents itself as a receptive audience to Iraq and much of the Arab World when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issue.
China in West Asia
It has been said that China has been ‘actively involved’ in the reconstruction of Iraq. Regarding the Development Road though, the most important development came in 2019. In 2019, Iraq signed a 20-year contract, agreeing to supply Chinese firms with 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil, with the revenue earmarked for funding various development projects in Iraq undertaken by Chinese firms.
Immediately following the deal, Chinese firms built 1,000 schools, developed the Nasiriyah city airport, erected power plants, and completed several other infrastructure projects. Of course, it was just the start of a long saga of Sino-Iraqi cooperation.
In 2021, Iraq was the largest beneficiary of Chinese allocations to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), receiving $10.5 billion out of a total of about $60 billion. Undoubtedly, Iraq has become a key target for Chinese ambitions.
At this point, it’s unknown how deeply China aims to ingratiate itself into the Development Road project as it has just been announced and signed. But the future for West Asia can be very Chinese indeed.
A win for Asia
The project concerns not just Iraq, Turkiye, Qatar, and the UAE. Promises of an end to the foreign-backed conflict in Syrian may allow Damascus to also benefit from it. Syria could be a highly beneficial BRI partner for China, eventually allowing it access to the lucrative Mediterranean Sea through Lattakia. This would be the best-case scenario for the extension of Chinese hands into West Asia.
Not only would it increase China’s own economic reach, but it would also help Beijing’s allies Russia and Iran expand their own influence in Syria, which has been a foreign policy goal for both. China’s economic partner Pakistan could also benefit from this, as its Gwadar port is a key member of the BRI.
But the promise of a Syrian BRI asset presenting itself in relation to the Development Road in the future can only come to reality once Damascus re-establishes full control over Syrian territory. As President Bashar Al-Assad increasingly appears to be the victor of the war, it also depends on the decisions of his government. But there is a reason for China to be optimistic due to Syria’s closeness to Russia and its antagonisation by the US.
Iran, for its part, remains unenthusiastic about the project as it competes with its own infrastructure projects connecting to Iraq. However, it is perhaps due to China’s tacit approval of the project that Iran has remained quiet about developments going on in Iraq. After all, Iran remains heavily involved with the Iraqi political scene.
They are not expected to cause problems with the project in the future, but any Iran investments or statements regarding it are to be watched out for.
The Iraqi ‘Development Road’ is a new chess move for West Asia. Despite its economic promises, the natural tendency of the region to be a hotspot for distrust and trouble means that its future is far from certain yet. But China may be the overseer to see it through to success.
